Forecast And Postmortem Pair
Use this when you want one prompt that first produces a calibrated forecast and then sets up a cleaner later postmortem.
Use when: Paste the upcoming event, decision, project, or forecast target and include any historical comparison cases if available.
Open prompt
Build a two-part forecasting and postmortem aid for the situation below.
Part A: Forecast now
- Give a probability range or outcome range rather than a single-point answer.
- Name the reference class or outside view.
- List the main assumptions carrying the forecast.
- Run a short premortem: imagine the forecast failed and list why.
Part B: Preserve the record for later learning
- Rewrite the forecast as a timestamped note that could be reviewed after the outcome.
- List three things that should be judged as process quality later rather than judged by the final result alone.
- End with a short reminder against hindsight bias and outcome bias.
Situation:
[PASTE PROJECT, EVENT, OR FORECAST TARGET HERE]
Groupthink Meeting Scan
Use this when a team discussion seems to be converging fast and you want help separating real agreement from status pressure, premature harmony, or hidden dissent.
Use when: Paste the decision under discussion, who is in the room, the current lean, and any objections that have surfaced so far.
Open prompt
Analyze the situation below as a groupthink and meeting-pressure scan.
Your tasks:
1. Restate the current decision and the room's apparent consensus.
2. Identify which voices, roles, or incentives may be shaping what people are willing to say.
3. Flag any signs of groupthink, authority bias, social desirability pressure, or false-consensus assumptions.
4. List the objections or alternatives that most need airtime before the discussion closes.
5. End with a cleaner meeting protocol for the next 15 minutes of discussion.
Output format:
◉ Apparent consensus
◉ Social pressure risks
◉ Missing objections
◉ Better next-step meeting structure
Situation:
[PASTE THE MEETING CASE HERE]
Choice Architecture Audit Plus
Use this when a decision may be getting steered by the menu, the frame, the decoy, the proxy question, or the push to act visibly.
Use when: Paste the choice, the options, any default or recommended option, and how the options are currently being presented.
Open prompt
Analyze the situation below as a deeper choice-architecture audit.
Do the following:
1. Restate the actual decision and the target attribute that should decide it.
2. Identify which easier proxy, comparison trick, system recommendation, or urgency cue may be steering the choice.
3. Explain how the current setup could be manufacturing preference rather than revealing it.
4. Rebuild the decision in a cleaner comparison format that removes the most distorting cue.
5. End with a better decision protocol for the next pass.
Decision setup:
[PASTE THE OPTIONS, PRESENTATION, AND CURRENT LEAN HERE]
Self-Justification Conflict Probe
Use this when a person, team, or institution seems to be editing memory, standards, or narrative to make a contradiction easier to live with.
Use when: Paste the contradictory commitments, the decision or behavior in question, and the justification currently being used to smooth the conflict.
Open prompt
Analyze the material below as a self-justification and contradiction probe.
Your tasks:
1. Name the commitments, values, or memories that are currently in tension.
2. Show how the current narrative reduces discomfort without necessarily resolving the contradiction honestly.
3. Identify which biases may be editing memory, standards, or self-description.
4. Separate the psychologically comforting story from the most evidence-responsible story.
5. End with three questions that would keep the contradiction visible long enough for a cleaner revision.
Material to probe:
[PASTE THE DECISION, JUSTIFICATION, OR CONFLICT HERE]