Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises
A broad review that helps distinguish selective search, selective weighting, and memory distortion.
Theory Article
Biases usually bend judgment before arguments become polished
A practical article on why cognitive biases often shape what feels plausible before anyone states a neat argument aloud.
Logical fallacies often become easiest to observe once a claim is already being defended in public form. Cognitive biases usually begin earlier, in attention, memory, salience, attribution, and self-protective interpretation. That earlier timing changes what a teaching site has to do.
Why the sequence matters
By the time a public argument arrives, much of the cognitive steering may already be over. A person may have retrieved only one class of examples, flattened the uncertainty around an outcome, or interpreted a social cue through a threat lens before the reasoning is ever verbalized cleanly.
That is one reason a bias site cannot simply imitate a fallacy list. It has to ask different diagnostic questions. What felt normal? What was easiest to remember? What perspective quietly became invisible because it was my own?
What teaching has to target instead
If biases act early, then a site has to teach earlier interventions. The useful move is often not a label shouted at the end of a conversation. It is a pause, a comparison, a rival hypothesis, a reference class, or a better meeting rule inserted before the judgment hardens.
This is why CogBias gives so much space to paths, self-checks, and process repair. The label matters, but the timing of the label matters even more.
- Fallacies often explain what went wrong in visible argument structure.
- Biases often explain why a visible argument was tilted before it was fully built.
- Debiasing therefore has to change workflow as much as vocabulary.
How this shapes the site
A strong bias page should not merely say what the distortion is. It should show the trigger, the felt certainty, the resulting warp, and the interruption point. That teaching sequence is more faithful to the object being taught.
In that sense, CogBias is not a mere sister site to LogFall. It is the earlier stage of the same general educational project: helping people see where thought first begins to drift.
Empirical anchors
Theory pages are editorial synthesis. These direct sources from the related bias pages keep the larger claims tied to the underlying literature.
Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability
The original paper introducing availability as a shortcut for probability and frequency judgment.
Naive Realism in Everyday Life: Implications for Social Conflict and Misunderstanding
The clearest source for the social-psychological version of naive realism used in conflict and disagreement work.
Hindsight Does Not Equal Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty
The original outcome-knowledge paper behind the hindsight effect.
Related biases
Use these entry pages after the article if you want the same theory translated into more concrete diagnostic and repair tools.
Confirmation bias
The tendency to notice, seek, and remember evidence that supports the story you already prefer more readily than evidence that threatens it.
Hypothesis AssessmentOutcomeMedia & politicsResearch & evidence
Availability heuristic
The tendency to judge frequency, risk, or importance by how easily examples come to mind.
EstimationAssociationMedia & politicsPersonal decisions
Naïve realism
The tendency to experience one's own perception of reality as the obvious, objective view and to treat disagreement as evidence that others are uninformed, irrational, or biased.
Opinion ReportingSelf-PerspectiveMedia & politicsConflict & dialogue
Hindsight bias
The tendency, after an outcome is known, to see it as having been more obvious or predictable than it actually was beforehand.
RecallOutcomePostmortems & learningForecasting & planning