Anchoring effect
Core pattern
An initial number, estimate, or reference point drags later judgments toward itself.
Ask: What estimate would people make before seeing the first number?
Cognitive Biases
A practical cognitive-bias site with clear definitions, learning paths, assessments, self-audits, and debiasing tools.
Compare Biases
Anchoring pulls judgment toward a starting value; framing changes judgment by changing how the same substance is described.
Anchoring effect
An initial number, estimate, or reference point drags later judgments toward itself.
Ask: What estimate would people make before seeing the first number?
Framing effect
Different descriptions of equivalent substance produce different judgments.
Ask: Would the preference survive a neutral wording or the opposite frame?
A first number can also be a frame, especially when it makes later options feel cheap, expensive, risky, or safe.
Ask whether the distortion is caused by a starting point or by a presentation shift.
Use these before deciding which label should carry the lesson.
Can you remove the first number and still reproduce the shift?
Can you restate the same facts in gain and loss language and watch the preference move?
Is the reference point numerical, narrative, emotional, or all three?
The same surface area can point to different underlying mechanisms.
A salary negotiation starts high and every counteroffer stays near that number.
Why: The opening number is the active pull.
A policy gains support as '90 lives saved' and loses support as '10 lives lost.'
Why: The same outcome changes force when the description changes.
Repair Move
Make an independent estimate first, then restate the decision in at least two equivalent frames.
Use the comparison as a bridge into the fuller pages.
The tendency for the first salient number, frame, or option to pull later estimates toward itself even when it is arbitrary or weakly relevant.
The tendency for the same underlying information to produce different judgments depending on how the options or outcomes are described.